Strong ground motion simulations of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes using corrected empirical Green’s functions: methods and results for ESG6 blind prediction Steps 2 and 3 with improved parameters

Abstract This paper describes the methods and results of strong ground motion simulations for three earthquakes from 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence using corrected empirical Green’s functions. The target were an aftershock ( M w 5.5), largest foreshock 6.1), mainshock 7.1). function method was used in simulations. simulation combines simple source path factors with site amplification phase to generate realistic site-specific motions. Simulations originally conducted participate blind prediction exercises ESG6. Although performed this study based on models submitted committee, several modifications made after exercise. First, observed records at called KUMA compare synthetic In addition, a regional spectral inversion obtain more appropriate Q- value factor. Synthetic motions found explain other stations. Comparisons predictions by sensitivity rupture scenario also discussed. These provide useful information applying Graphical